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Les cycles économiques de la France: une datation de référence

Valérie Mignon (), Antonin Aviat, Frédérique Bec, Claude Diebolt (), Denis Ferrand, Laurent Ferrara (), Eric Heyer, Pierre-Alain Pionnier and Catherine Doz

No 2021-22, EconomiX Working Papers from University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX

Abstract: This article proposes a quarterly dating of recession and expansion periods of the French economy since 1970, carried out by the AFSE (Association Française de Science Economique)’s cycle dating committee. The methodology used is based on two pillars: (i) econometric estimates from a dataset to identify candidate periods, and (ii) a narrative approach that details the economic context of the time to finalize our dating. From 1970 to nowadays, the committee identified four periods of economic recession: the two oil shocks of 1974-75 and 1980, the investment cycle of 1992-93, and the Great Recession of 2008-09 spawned by the global financial crisis. The peak prior to the Covid recession has been dated to the last quarter of 2019.

Keywords: Business cycles; French economy; dating; narrative approach; econometric models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C24 E32 E37 N14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 46 pages
Date: 2021
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Working Paper: Les cycles économiques de la France: une datation de référence (2021) Downloads
Working Paper: Les cycles économiques de la France: une datation de référence (2021) Downloads
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