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Modeling ex-ante risk premia in the oil market

Remzi Uctum () and Georges Prat ()

No 2021-31, EconomiX Working Papers from University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX

Abstract: Using Consensus Economics survey-based data we show that oil price expectations are not rational, implying that the ex-ante premium is a more relevant concept than the widely popular ex-post premium. We propose for the 3- and 12-month horizons a portfolio choice model with risky oil assets and a risk-free asset. At the maximized expected utility the risk premium is defined as the product of the risk price by the expected oil return volatility. We show that the representative investor can be risk averse or risk seeking depending on the state of nature, implying that the price of risk is positive or negative, respectively. The price of risk and expected volatility being unobservable magnitudes, a state-space model, where the risk prices are represented as stochastic unobservable components and where expected volatilities depend on historical squared returns, is estimated using Kalman filtering. We find evidence of significant disparities of risk prices according to horizons: higher amplitudes and risk seeking behaviour are associated with short horizons and lower fluctuations and risk aversion attitude characterize longer horizons. We show that macroeconomic, financial and oil market-related factors drive risk prices whose signs are consistent with the predictions of prospect theory. An upward sloped term structure of oil risk premia prevails in average over the period.

Keywords: oil market; oil price expectations; ex-ante risk premium (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D81 G11 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39 pages
Date: 2021
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa, nep-ene, nep-fmk, nep-rmg and nep-upt
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Working Paper: Modeling ex-ante risk premia in the oil market (2021) Downloads
Working Paper: Modeling ex-ante risk premia in the oil market (2021)
Working Paper: Modeling ex-ante risk premia in the oil market (2021) Downloads
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