The financial cost of stabilizing US farm income under climate change

Cécile Couharde and Rémi Generoso

No 2023-18, EconomiX Working Papers from University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX

Abstract: The paper assesses the financial cost of federal farm programs in mitigating income losses due to drier conditions expected from climate change. Our study encompasses agricultural-producing counties within the conterminous United States during the census years from 2002 to 2017. We quantify historical drought patterns and their projected trends for the near (2020-2049) and more distant (2030-2059) future, using climate reanalysis data and 20 downscaled global circulation model products from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. We estimate the relationship between federal agricultural payments and climate change by analyzing how farm income losses due to drier conditions affect the magnitude and distribution of these payments under the RCP 8.5 scenario. We predict that, under unmitigated climate change, payments from federal farm program should significantly increase to maintain their income–stabilization capacity, with a greater likelihood

Keywords: Climate change; Farm income; Federal farm payments; Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q12 Q18 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 57 pages
Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-env
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Working Paper: The financial cost of stabilizing US farm income under climate change (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:drm:wpaper:2023-18

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