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Assessment of farmers’ vulnerability to climate change at river basin scale: an integrated modeling approach

Roberto Ponce Oliva (), Francisco Fernández, Alejandra Stehr, Felipe Vásquez Lavín and Alex Godoy
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Alex Godoy: School of Business and Economics, Universidad del Desarrollo

No 34, Serie Working Papers from Universidad del Desarrollo, School of Business and Economics

Abstract: Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable economic sectors to the impacts of climate change, specifically those related with expected changes in water availability. Using a spatially distributed hydro-economic model, the study assesses the economic impact of climate change, considering the geographical location of each farmer’s community and the spatial distribution of water resources at basin scale. A hydrological model, the SWAT model, describes the basin hydrology, while farmers’ economic responses are represented using a non-linear agricultural supply model. We simulated a reduction in water endowment by perturbing the hydrologic model with a regionalized climate change scenario in order to assess the behavior of farmers’ communities. We assess this behavior by 1) allowing water transfer from upstream communities and, 2) ignoring water relationship across communities. At the aggregated level we found small impacts, consistent with existent literature; however, we found large distributive impacts among farmer’s communities, especially when the spatial distribution of water resources are ignored

Keywords: Hydro-economic model; climate change; agriculture; irrigation; hydrology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24 pages
Date: 2016-08
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