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A MULTIPLE BREAK PANEL APPROACH TO ESTIMATING UNITED STATES PHILLIPS CURVES

Bill Russell (), Anindya Banerjee (), Issam Malki and Natalia Ponomareva

No 252, Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics from Economic Studies, University of Dundee

Abstract: Phillips curves are often estimated without due attention being paid to the underlying time series properties of the data. In particular, the consequences of inflation having discrete breaks in mean have not been studied adequately. We show by means of simulations and a detailed empirical example based on United States data that not taking account of breaks may lead to biased, and therefore spurious, estimates of Phillips curves. We suggest a method to account for the breaks in mean inflation and obtain meaningful and unbiased estimates of the short- and long-run Phillips curves in the United States.

Keywords: Phillips curve; inflation; panel data; non-stationary data; breaks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C23 E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 47 pages
Date: 2011-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba
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Related works:
Working Paper: A Multiple Break Panel Approach to Estimating United States Phillips Curves (2011) Downloads
Working Paper: A Multiple Break Panel Approach to Estimating United States Phillips Curves (2010) Downloads
Working Paper: A MULTIPLE BREAK PANEL APPROACH TO ESTIMATING UNITED STATES PHILLIPS CURVES (2010) Downloads
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