Partisan Bias in Economic Forecasts: Experimental Evidence from the Presidential Elections in Argentina

Diego Marino-Fages ()
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Diego Marino-Fages: University of Durham
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Diego Raul Marino Fages

No 2026_06, Department of Economics Working Papers from Durham University, Department of Economics

Abstract: Rising political polarization may affect a key input for policy: household economic expectations. I study whether political preferences shape forecasts of inflation, unemployment, and exchange rates in an online experiment during Argentina’s 2023 presidential election (N=1,162). The design exogenously varies accuracy incentives and information about current indicators. Accuracy incentives reduce gaps in candidate-contingent forecasts, especially for the black market exchange rate and unemployment. Information provision reduces forecast dispersion but has weaker effects on partisan gaps. The results matter for survey design when eliciting household expectations.

Keywords: Partisan Bias; Forecasts; Prediction; Expectations; Survey Experiment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C9 D84 D91 E71 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-05
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