Determinants of the Trilemma Policy Combination
Hiro Ito and
Masahiro Kawai ()
Macroeconomics Working Papers from East Asian Bureau of Economic Research
We present a theoretical framework for policy making based on the â€œimpossible trinityâ€ or the â€œtrilemmaâ€ hypothesis. A simple optimization model shows that placing more weight in terms of preference for each of the three open macroeconomic policiesâ€”exchange rate stability, financial market openness, and monetary policy independenceâ€”contributes to a higher level of achievement in that particular policy. We then develop the first empirical framework in the literature to investigate the joint determination of the triad open macroeconomic policies based on the trilemma hypothesis. Specifically, we estimate the three policy indexes under the trilemma constraint that they must add up to a constant. By applying the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) estimation method and employing other robustness checks, we demonstrate that simple economic and structural fundamentals determine the trilemma policy combinations. Last, we examine how deviations from the â€œoptimalâ€ trilemma policy combinations evolve around the time of a financial crisis. Policy combinations seem to violate the trilemma constraint when a currency, banking, or debt crisis breaks out. These findings suggest that deviations from the trilemma hypothesis would create policy stress, which would have to manifest itself in a crisis unless policy makers adjust the policy combination in a way consistent with the trilemma constraint.
Keywords: impossible trinity; trilemma hypothesis; exchange rate stability; financial market openness; monetary policy independence; trilemma policy combination; trilemma constraint (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F15 F21 F31 F36 F41 O24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mon and nep-opm
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Working Paper: Determinants of the Trilemma Policy Combination (2014)
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