Mapping Technological Trajectories: Evidence from Two Centuries of Patent Data

Antonin Bergeaud, Ruveyda Gozen and John Van Reenen
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Antonin Bergeaud: HEC Paris - Economics & Decision Sciences
Ruveyda Gozen: London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Programme on Innovation and Diffusion
John Van Reenen: London School of Economics - Centre for Economic Performance (CEP); Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

No 1614, HEC Research Papers Series from HEC Paris

Abstract: We introduce a methodology to measure cross-country trends in innovation capability - “technological trajectories” and implement this on a new rich dataset covering patents between 1836 and 2016 across multiple countries. Intuitively, trajectories are revealed by a country’s sustained increases in patenting across multiple patent offices. We first describe the data patterns, showing the relative decline of the UK, and the rise first of the US and Germany, and then later of Japan and China. We then econometrically estimate trajectories on (i) the post-1902 period for France, Germany, Japan, the UK and US, and (ii) the post-1960 period for a wider sample of 40 countries. Our trajectories are strongly positively correlated with Total Factor Productivity growth, and also (but less strongly) associated with the growth of labour productivity and capital intensity. We show that future trajectories are predicted by a country’s initial levels of R&D, education and defence spending, classic drivers of innovation in modern growth theory.

Keywords: Technological trajectories; Dataset; Data patterns; Productivity growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O31 O33 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28 pages
Date: 2026-02-03, Revised 2026-02-16
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ebg:heccah:1614

DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.6167252

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