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Forecasting Large Datasets with Conditionally Heteroskedastic Dynamic Common Factors

Lucia Alessi (), Matteo Barigozzi and Marco Capasso ()

No 2009_005, Working Papers ECARES from ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles

Abstract: We propose a new method for multivariate forecasting which combines Dynamic Factor and multivariate GARCH models. We call the model Dynamic Factor GARCH, as the information contained in large macroeconomic or financial datasets is captured by a few dynamic common factors, which we assume being conditionally heteroskedastic. After describing the estimation of the model, we present simulation results and carry out two empirical applications on financial asset returns and macroeconomic series, with a particular focus on different measures of inflation. Our proposed model outperforms the benchmarks in forecasting the conditional volatility of returns and the inflation level. Moreover, it allows to predict conditional covariances of all the time series in the panel.

Keywords: Dynamic factors; multivariate GARCH; covolatility forecasting; inflation forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-ets, nep-for and nep-ore
Date: 2009
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