Nowcasting Mexican GDP

Alberto Caruso

Working Papers ECARES from ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles

Abstract: In this paper I study the flow of conjunctural data relevant to assess the state of theMexican economy. I reconstruct the flow of releases that are most frequently monitored bymarket participants, economic commentators and policy makers. Given the close linkages withthe US economy, I take into account both US and Mexican data. Following the literature onnowcasting, I jointly analyse these data in a model that is continuously updated as new data getreleased. The model can be used to assess the current macroeconomic conditions (predictingthe present) of the Mexican economy and to evaluate the importance of each macroeconomicdata release. I find that the model produces forecasts whose accuracy is similar to that ofinstitutional and judgemental forecasts, and I document the importance of considering US data.

Pages: 29 p.
Date: 2015-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
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