Economics Uncertainty and Fertility Cycles: The Case of the Post-WWII Baby Boom

Bastien Chabé-Ferret () and Paula Gobbi

No 2018-19, Working Papers ECARES from ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles

Abstract: Using the US Census waves 1940-1990 and CPS 1990-2010, we look at how economic uncertainty affected fertility cycles over the course of the XXth century. We use cross-state and cross-cohort variation in the volatility of income growth to identify the causal link running from uncertainty to fertility. We find that economic uncertainty has a large and robust negative effect on completed fertility. We hypothesize that a greater economic uncertainty increases the risk of large consumption swings, which individuals mitigate by postponing fertility and ultimately decreasing their completed fertility. Differences in volatility account for between 45% and 61% of the one child variation observed during the post WWII baby boom

Keywords: baby boom; baby bust; fertility; economic uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 38 p.
Date: 2018-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem, nep-gro and nep-his
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

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Working Paper: Economic Uncertainty and Fertility Cycles: The Case of the Post-WWII Baby Boom (2018)
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