Working Paper Series

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20263198: Can satellites predict oil demand?

Jean-Charles Bricongne, Baptiste Meunier, Joao Macalos, Julia Milis and Thomas Pical

20263197: The great redistribution that wasn’t: a HANK-OLG perspective on monetary policy

Michał Brzoza-Brzezina and Rodolfo Dinis Rigato

20263196: Bond funds’ risk taking and monetary policy

Sofia Anyfantaki, Petros Migiakis, Filippos Petroulakis, Haris Giannakidis and Dimitris Malliaropulos

20263195: Stabilizing credit when nonperforming loans surge: the role of asset management companies

Reiner Martin, O’Brien, Edward, Udara Peiris and Dimitrios P. Tsomocos

20263194: Homeowners insurance and the transmission of monetary policy

Christian Kubitza, Dominik Damast and Jakob Ahm Sørensen

20263193: Looser, tighter, clearer: a new Financial Conditions Index for the euro area

Tilman Bletzinger, Giulia Martorana and Jakub Mistak

20263192: Macroeconomic effects of carbon-intensive energy price changes: a model comparison

Matthias Burgert, Matthieu Darracq Pariès, Romanos Priftis, Oke Röhe, Matthias Rottner, Edgar Silgado-Gómez, Nikolai Stähler, Luigi Durand, Mario González and Janos Varga

20263191: A least-squares filter for sequence-space models

Rodolfo Dinis Rigato

20263190: How do macroprudential measures affect mortgage lending standards? Evidence from the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey

Markus Behn, Marco Lo Duca and Cristian Perales

20263189: Bayesian inference in IV regressions

Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza and Giorgio E. Primiceri

20263188: A structural model of capital buffer usability

Jan Hannes Lang and Dominik Menno

20263187: Margins as canaries in the coal mine

Christian Kubitza and Martin Oehmke

20263186: Fiscal monitoring with VARs

Jacopo Cimadomo, Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza, Francesca Monti and Andrej Sokol

20263185: Why is Europe lagging behind in high tech sectors? The role of institutional and regulatory quality

Jonathan Bothner, Paloma Lopez-Garcia, Daphne Momferatou and Ralph Setzer

20263184: Climate change, catastrophes, insurance and the macroeconomy

Margherita Giuzio, Linda Rousová, Sujit Kapadia, Hradayesh Kumar, Miles Parker, Luisa Mazzotta and Dimitris Zafeiris

20263183: Fiscal seigniorage and price level determination in a currency union

Sebastian Schmidt

20263182: Money demand by non-financial corporations

Luca Nocciola

20263181: Consumer price stickiness in the euro area during an inflation surge

Erwan Gautier, Cristina Conflitti, Ludmila Fadejeva, Alex Grimaud, Valentin Jouvanceau, Jan-Oliver Menz, Alari Paulus, Pavlos Petroulas, Pau Roldan-Blanco, Elisabeth Wieland, Daniel Enderle and Eduardo Gutiérrez

20263180: The labour market in the euro area: and yet, it moves!

Agostino Consolo, Claudia Foroni and Linnéa Hjelm

20263179: What drives business expectations? A tale of demand and supply

Niccolò Battistini and Pedro Neves

20263178: Do banks respond to their friends’ markets? Social spillovers in deposit pricing

Sofia Anyfantaki, Natalya Martynova and Panagiotis Avramidis

20263177: The EU’s CBAM: implications for member states and trading partners

Geoffroy Dolphin and Gianluigi Ferrucci

20263176: Environmental score and bond pricing: it better be good, it better be green

Fabio Fornari, Daniele Pianeselli and Andrea Zaghini

20263175: Understanding the inflation–output relationship across business cycle phases

Roberto A. De Santis and Dario Cardamone

20263174: Private money and public debt. U.S. Stablecoins and the global safe asset channel

Massimo Ferrari Minesso and Daniele Siena

20263173: Navigating credit dynamics: does it matter for firm-level investment? Evidence from AnaCredit

Lorena Saiz and Serkan Kocabaş

20263172: A monetary policy perspective on the euro area fiscal reaction function

Guido Wolswijk

20263171: Structural drivers of growth at risk: insights from a VAR-quantile regression approach

Giacomo Carboni, Luís Fonseca, Fabio Fornari and Leonardo Urrutia

20263170: Contingent convertible debt: what is and what should have been

Ricardo Correia and Francisco Javier Población García

20263169: Liquidity spirals

Garbrand Wiersema, Esti Kemp and J. Doyne Farmer

20263168: Climate change, bank liquidity and systemic risk

Margherita Giuzio, Bige Kahraman and Jasper Knyphausen

20263167: Risky collateral and default probability

Salvatore Perdichizzi, Alessio Reghezza, Martina Spaggiari, Kostas Koufopoulos and Danny McGowan

20263166: Joint extreme value-at-risk and expected shortfall dynamics with a single integrated tail shape parameter

André Lucas, Bernd Schwaab, Xin Zhang and D’Innocenzo, Enzo

20253165: Financial integration and the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area

João B. Duarte and Mariana Pires

20253164: The climate-biodiversity-pollution nexus: the pricing of environmental credit risks for European

Dominik Hirschbühl, Andrej Ceglar, Tina Emambakhsh, Carlo Pasqua, Theodor Cojoianu, Yifan Qi, Caterina Rho, Elsie Hu, Marco Petracco, Fabrizio Biganzoli, Alfred de Jager, Laura Garcia Herrero and Andrea Mandrici

20253163: Misestimating house values: consequences for household finance

Stefano Corradin, José L. Fillat and Carles Vergara-Alert

20253162: Asset prices, wealth inequality, and welfare: safe assets as a solution

Xitong Hui

20253161: Banks’ regulatory risk tolerance

Aurea Marques, Mikael Juselius and Nikola Tarashev

20253160: Estimating the natural rate of interest in a macro-finance yield curve model

Claus Brand, Gavin Goy and Wolfgang Lemke

20253159: Global or regional safe assets: evidence from bond substitution patterns

Tsvetelina Nenova

20253158: Inflation narratives and expectations

Giovanni Trebbi

20253157: Monetary transmission with frequent policy events

Carlo Altavilla, Refet Gürkaynak, Luc Laeven and Thilo Kind

20253156: Inflation risk and heterogeneous trading down

Mar Domenech Palacios

20253155: Walking the talk? Green politicians and pollution patterns

Michael Koetter and Alexander Popov

20253154: Labor supply response to windfall gains

Dimitris Georgarakos, Tullio Jappelli, Geoff Kenny and Luigi Pistaferri

20253153: The fiscal sources of euro area inflation through the lens of the Bernanke-Blanchard model

Dennis Bonam, Cristina Checherita-Westphal and Mariana Montserrat Cerra Pacheco

20253152: Supply chain decoupling in green products: a granular input-output analysis

Maria Grazia Attinasi, Lukas Boeckelmann, Bernardo De Castro Martins, Baptiste Meunier, Alessandro Borin, Francesco Paolo Conteduca and Michele Mancini

20253151: Investment funds and the monetary-macroprudential policy interplay

Martin Hodula and Anisa Tiza Mimun

20253150: Monetary policy transmission to investment: evidence from a survey on enterprise finance

Annalisa Ferrando, Sara Lamboglia and Eric Offner

20253149: Joining forces: why banks syndicate credit

Steven Ongena, Alex Osberghaus and Glenn Schepens

20253148: A machine learning approach to real time identification of turning points in monetary aggregates M1 and M3

Max Lampe and Ramón Adalid

20253147: Repo collateral reuse and liquidity windfalls

Georgios Angelis Alexiou, Sofia M. Pereira and Victor Rodrigues-Gomes

20253146: Household borrowing and monetary policy transmission: post-pandemic insights from nine European credit registers

Olivier De Jonghe, Konstantins Benkovskis, Karolis Bielskis, Diana Bonfim, Margherita Bottero, Tamás Briglevics, Martin Cesnak, Mantas Dirma, Marina Emiris, Palma Filep-Mosberger, Valentin Jouvanceau, Nicholas Kaiser, Dmitry Khametshin, Tibor Lalinsky, Viola M. Grolmusz, Laura Moretti, Artūrs Jānis Nikitins, Angelo Nunnari, Maria Rodriguez-Moreno, Elitsa Stefanova, Lajos Szabó, Kārlis Vilerts and Sujiao Emma Zhao

20253145: Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the aftermath of an inflationary shock

Maria Campos, Sandra Gomes, Pascal Jacquinot and José Miguel Cardoso-Costa

20253144: The protectionist gamble: How tariffs shape greenfield foreign direct investment

Isabella Moder and Tajda Spital

20253143: Geopolitical risk, bank lending and real effects on firms: evidence from the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Peter McQuade, Cosimo Pancaro, Alessio Reghezza and Pauline Avril

20253142: Developing distributional national accounts: first attempt to estimate a joint distribution for income and wealth for the euro area

Nina Blatnik, Ilja Kristian Kavonius and Luís Teles Morais

20253141: Reputation for Confidence

Laura Gáti and Amy Handlan

20253140: Banking on assumptions? How banks model deposit maturities

Lara Coulier, Cosimo Pancaro, Livia Pancotto and Alessio Reghezza

20253139: Fiscal announcements and households’ beliefs: evidence from the euro area

José-Elías Gallegos, Esteban Garcia-Miralles, Iván Kataryniuk and Susana Parraga Rodriguez

20253138: Decomposing US economic fluctuations: a trend-cycle approach

Luca Fosso

20253137: Inflation and monetary policy in medium-sized New Keynesian DSGE models

Günter Coenen, Falk Mazelis, Roberto Motto, Annukka Ristiniemi, Frank Smets, Anders Warne and Raf Wouters

20253136: Fiscal drag in theory and in practice: a European perspective

Esteban Garcia-Miralles, Maximilian Freier, Sara Riscado, Baiba Brusbārde, Marion Cochard, David Cornille, Emanuele Dicarlo, Mar Delgado-Téllez, Ludmila Fadejeva, Maria Flevotomou, Florian Henne, Tara McIndoe-Calder, Myroslav Pidkuyko, Mojca Roter, Frédérique Savignac, Andreja Strojan Kastelec, Chrysa Leventi, Alberto Mazzon, Glenn Abela, Laura Boyd, Ian Debattista, Mathias Dolls, Alena Harrer-Bachleitner, Viktor Jászberényi-Király, Max Lay, Laura Lehtonen, Mauro Mastrogiacomo, Mathias Moser, Martin Nevicky, Andreas Peichl, Vaidotas Tuzikas, Nikos Ventouris and Lara Wemans

20253135: Decoding climate-related risks in sovereign bond pricing: a global perspective

Sofia Anyfantaki, Marianna Blix Grimaldi, Georgios Papadopoulos, Carlos Madeira and Simona Malovana

20253134: A study on the interaction of capital, liquidity and bank stability

Francisco Javier Población García and Nuria Suárez

20253133: The slope of the euro area price Phillips curve: evidence from regional data

Anna Beschin, Joan Paredes, Gaetano Polichetti and Théodore Renault

20253132: How do rising temperatures affect inflation expectations?

Dimitris Georgarakos, Geoff Kenny, Justus Meyer and Maarten van Rooij

20253131: From Brussels to Bangkok: how investment funds transmit financial spillovers

Pablo Anaya Longaric, Katharina Cera, Georgios Georgiadis and Christoph Kaufmann

20253130: Macroprudential policy, monetary policy and non-bank financial intermediation

Margherita Giuzio, Sujit Kapadia, Christoph Kaufmann, Manuela Storz and Christian Weistroffer

20253129: Hidden weaknesses: the role of unrealized losses in monetary policy transmission

Benedikt Kagerer, Cosimo Pancaro, Alessio Reghezza and Antonio De Vito

20253128: The impact of capital requirements on bank capital

Ugo Albertazzi, Aurea Marques, Aurora Abbondanza and Giulia Leila Travaglini

20253127: Durability, essentiality, and the transmission of monetary policy to household consumption

Johannes Gareis and Ryan Minasian

20253126: Foreign demand for safety and macroeconomic instability

Madalen Castells-Jauregui, Dmitry Kuvshinov, Björn Richter and Victoria Vanasco

20253125: Battle of the ages: distributional and aggregate effects of monetary policy in a model with age demographics

Wouter J. Den Haan, Alessandro Ferrari, Falk Mazelis and Annukka Ristiniemi

20253124: The Great Moderation at 40: learning from the cross section

Livio Stracca

20253123: Business cycles with pricing cascades

Anton Nakov and Mishel Ghassibe

20253122: What can newspaper articles reveal about the euro area economy?

Lorena Saiz and Manuel Medina Magro

20253121: Sustainability labels vs. reality: how climate-friendly are green and ESG funds?

Dilyara Salakhova, Margherita Giuzio, Sujit Kapadia and Giulio Mazzolini

20253120: Macroeconomic regime change and the size of supply chain disruption and energy supply shocks

Roberto A. De Santis and Tommaso Tornese

20253119: The ECB-Multi Country Model. A semi-structural model for forecasting and policy analysis for the largest euro area countries

Elena Angelini, Nikola Bokan, Matteo Ciccarelli, Magdalena Lalik and Srecko Zimic

20253118: Firms’ risk and monetary transmission: revisiting the excess bond premium

Mar Domenech Palacios

20253117: Trade wars and global spillovers. A quantitative assessment with ECB-global

Valentin Jouvanceau, Matthieu Darracq Paries, Alistair Dieppe and Thore Kockerols

20253116: Oil shocks and firm investment on the two sides of the Atlantic

Pablo Anaya Longaric, Vasileios Kostakis, Laura Parisi and Francesca Vinci

20253115: The importance of the SSM’s fitness and propriety work for banks’ performance – evidence from 10 years of SSM work

Francesca Faella, Christopher Scheins, Claudia Schwarz and Vivian M. van Breemen

20253114: The effects of monetary policy on banks and non-banks in times of stress

Gábor Fukker, Matthias Sydow and Anisa Tiza Mimun

20253113: Stylized facts in money markets: an empirical analysis of the eurozone data

Nolwenn Allaire, Victor Le Coz, Michael Benzaquen and Damien Challe

20253112: Mortgage loan rates and the defaults of variable rate mortgages

Emil Bandoni, Barbara Jarmulska and Friederike Fourné

20253111: Central bank money as a catalyst for fungibility: the case of stablecoins

Charles-Enguerrand Coste and George Pantelopoulos

20253110: The signaling effects of fiscal announcements

Leonardo Melosi, Anna Rogantini Picco, Hiroshi Morita and Francesco Zanetti

20253109: The heterogeneous impact of labor market shifts on household mortgage-taking

Michele Cantarella and Ilja Kristian Kavonius

20253108: The causal effect of inflation on financial stability, evidence from history

Ugo Albertazzi, Hooft, James ’t and Lucas Ter Steege

20253107: Nonlinearities and heterogeneity in firms response to aggregate fluctuations: what can we learn from machine learning?

Simone Pesce, Marco Errico and Luigi Pollio

20253106: Public debt, iMPCs & fiscal policy transmission

Stefano Grancini

20253105: Opening the black box of local projections

Karin Klieber and Philippe Goulet Coulombe

20253104: Geography versus income: the heterogeneous effects of carbon taxation

Charles Labrousse and Yann Perdereau

20253103: Central bank communication with non-experts: insights from a randomized field experiment

Alexander Jung and Francesco Paolo Mongelli

20253102: The macroeconomic impact of trade policy: a new identification approach

Alica Bonk and Chloe Larkou

20253101: Heterogeneous intermediaries in the transmission of central bank corporate bond purchases

Fédéric Holm-Hadulla and Matteo Leombroni

20253100: How to conduct joint Bayesian inference in VAR models?

Andrian Yambolov

20253099: Unlocking growth? EU investment programmes and firm performance

Alessandro De Sanctis, Daniel Kapp, Francesca Vinci and Robert Wojciechowski