Inflation forecast-based-rules and indeterminacy: a puzzle and a resolution

Peter McAdam (), Paul Levine () and Joseph Pearlman

No 643, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: We examine an interesting puzzle in monetary economics between what monetary authorities claim (namely to be forward-looking and pre-emptive) and the poor stabilization properties routinely reported for forecast-based rules. Our resolution is that central banks should be viewed as following 'Calvo-type' inflation-forecast-based (IFB) interest rate rules which depend on a discounted sum of current and future rates of inflation. Such rules might be regarded as both within the legal frameworks, and potentially mimicking central bankers' practice. We find that Calvo-type IFB interest rate rules are first: less prone to indeterminacy than standard rules with a finite forward horizon. Second, for such rules in difference form, the indeterminacy problem disappears altogether. Third, optimized forms have good stabilization properties as they become more forward-looking, a property that sharply contrasts that of standard IFB rules. Fourth, they appear data coherent when incorporated into a well-known estimated DSGE model of the Euro-area. JEL Classification: E52, E37, E58

Keywords: Calvo-type interest rate rules; indeterminacy; Inflation-forecast-based interest rate rules (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-06
Note: 50336
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Inflation-Forecast-Based Rules and Indeterminacy: A Puzzle and a Resolution (2007)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006643

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