EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies

Arnaud Mehl ()

No 691, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: This paper investigates the extent to which the slope of the yield curve in emerging economies predicts domestic inflation and growth. It also examines international financial linkages and how the US and the euro area yield curves help to predict. It finds that the domestic yield curve in emerging economies has in-sample information content even after controlling for inflation and growth persistence, at both short and long forecast horizons, and that it often improves out-of-sample forecasting performance. Differences across countries are seemingly linked to market liquidity. The paper further finds that the US and the euro area yield curves also have in- and out-of-sample information content for future inflation and growth in emerging economies. In particular, for emerging economies that have an exchange rate peg to the US dollar, the US yield curve is often found to be a better predictor than these economies’ own domestic curve and to causally explain their movements. This suggests that monetary policy changes and short-term interest rate pass-through are key drivers of international financial linkages through movements from the low end of the yield curve. JEL Classification: E44, F3, C5

Keywords: emerging economies; forecasting; international linkages; yield curve (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-11
Note: 501438
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp691.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: The Yield Curve as a Predictor and Emerging Economies (2009) Downloads
Working Paper: The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies (2006) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006691

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Paper Series from European Central Bank 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Official Publications ().

 
Page updated 2021-10-15
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006691