Determinants of credit-less recoveries

Martin Bijsterbosch and Tatjana Dahlhaus

No 1358, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: This paper aims to shed light on the characteristics and particularly the determinants of credit-less recoveries. After building a dataset and documenting some stylised facts of credit-less recoveries in emerging market economies, this paper uses panel probit models to analyse key determinants of credit-less recoveries. Our main findings are the following. First, our frequency analysis confirms earlier findings that credit-less recoveries are not at all rare events. Moreover, our analysis shows that the frequency of credit-less recoveries doubles after a banking or currency crisis. Second, results from estimated panel probit models suggest that credit-less recoveries are typically preceded by large declines in economic activity and financial stress, in particular if private sector indebtedness is high and the country is reliant on foreign capital inflows. Finally, we find that the predicted probability of a credit-less recovery in central and eastern European EU Member States during the coming years varies across countries, but is relatively high in the Baltic States. JEL Classification: C23, C25, E32, E51, G01

Keywords: Credit-less Recoveries; Financial crises; Panel Probit Models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-cba, nep-eec and nep-tra
Note: 339019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (20)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111358

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