A global perspective on inflation and propagation channels
Luca Gattini (),
Huw Pill and
Ludger Schuknecht ()
No 1462, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank
This paper revisits the evidence on the monetary policy transmission channels. It extends the existing literature along three lines: i) it takes a global perspective with aggregate series based on a broader set of countries (ca 70% per cent of the global economy) and a longer time (1960-2010) than previous studies. It, thereby, internalises potential international transmission channels (i.e. via global commodity prices); ii) it examines the interaction between monetary variables, asset prices (notably residential property) and inflation; and iii) it looks at the role of public debt for consumer price developments. On the basis of a VAR analysis, the study finds that i) global money demand shocks affect global inflation and also global commodity prices, which in turn impact on inflation; ii) global asset/property price dynamics appear to respond to financing cost shocks, but not to shocks to global money demand. Moreover, positive house price shocks exert a significant influence on inflation. From a global perspective, the study suggests recognition of global externalities of commodities and asset values as well as the close monitoring of real estate price developments. JEL Classification: E31, E51, E62, C32, F42
Keywords: global house prices; global inflation; global money; VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-cwa, nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-opm
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Journal Article: A global perspective on inflation and propagation channels (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121462
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