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Forecasting the Brent oil price: addressing time-variation in forecast performance

Ine Van Robays () and Cristiana Manescu ()

No 1735, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: This paper demonstrates how the real-time forecasting accuracy of different Brent oil price forecast models changes over time. We find considerable instability in the performance of all models evaluated and argue that relying on average forecasting statistics might hide important information on a model`s forecasting properties. To address this instability, we propose a forecast combination approach to predict quarterly real Brent oil prices. A four-model combination (consisting of futures, risk-adjusted futures, a Bayesian VAR and a DGSE model of the oil market) predicts Brent oil prices more accurately than the futures and the random walk up to 11 quarters ahead, on average, and generates a forecast whose performance is remarkably robust over time. In addition, the model combination reduces the forecast bias and predicts the direction of the oil price changes more accurately than both benchmarks. JEL Classification: Q43, C43, E32

Keywords: Brent oil prices; central banks; forecast combination; real-time; time-variation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-for
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Working Paper: Forecasting the Brent Oil Price: Addressing Time-Variation in Forecast Performance (2016) Downloads
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