Euro area business cycles in turbulent times: convergence or decoupling?

Benjamin Klaus and Filippo Ferroni

No 1819, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: We study the business cycle properties of the four largest euro area economies in the wake of the recent recession episodes. The analysis is based on the factors estimated from a multi-country and multi-sector data-rich environment. We measure alikeness of business cycles by studying the synchronization of up and down phases, the convergence properties of country fluctuations towards the euro area cycles and the contribution of the euro area factor to national GDP volatilities. While the economic fluctuations of the four euro area member states were similar before the global financial turmoil, we gather compelling evidence of an asymmetric behaviour of Spanish fluctuations relative to the euro area one. JEL Classification: C51, E32, O52

Keywords: Hierarchical factor models; International business cycles; Synchronization and Convergence ECB (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (30)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Euro Area business cycles in turbulent times: convergence or decoupling? (2015)
Working Paper: Euro Area business cycles in turbulent times: convergence or decoupling? (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151819

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