Interconnectedness of the banking sector as a vulnerability to crises

Tuomas Peltonen (), Peter Sarlin and Michela Rancan

No 1866, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: This paper uses domestic and cross-border linkages to measure the interconnectedness of the banking sector, and relates it to banking crises in Europe. Beyond cross-border financial linkages of the banking sector, we also account for financial linkages to the other main financial and non-financial sectors within the economy. We enrich conventional early-warning models using macro-financial vulnerabilities, by including measures of banking sector centrality as potential determinants of banking crises. Our results show that a more central position of the banking sector in these so-called macro-networks significantly increases the probability of a banking crisis. By analyzing the different types of risk exposures, our evidence shows that credit as well as market risks are important sources of vulnerabilities. Finally, the results show that early-warning models augmented with interconnectedness measures outperform traditional models in terms of out-of-sample predictions of recent banking crises in Europe. JEL Classification: F36, G20

Keywords: Banking crises; Early-warning model; Financial interconnectedness; Macro-networks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-11
Note: 355041
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1866.en.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151866

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Paper Series from European Central Bank 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Official Publications ().