EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Predicting risk premia in short-term interest rates and exchange rates

Johannes Gräb () and Thomas Kostka ()

No 2131, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: We assess the ability of yield curve factors to predict risk premia in short-term interest rates and exchange rates across a large sample of major advanced economies. We find that the same tick-shaped linear combination of (relative) bond yields predicts risk premia in both short-term interest rates and exchange rates at returnforecasting horizons of up to six months for all (but one) countries and currencies in our sample. Our single forecasting factor loads positively on the short and long end of the curve and negatively on the medium-term and is therefore inversely related to Nelson-Siegel’s curvature factor. In line with recent interpretations of the yield curve factors, our findings suggest that the hump of the yield curve bears important information about future short-term interest rates. A relatively high curvature predicts a surprise rise in short-term interest rates beyond expectations and, coincidentally, an appreciation of the home currency in line with uncovered interest rate parity. JEL Classification: C23, C53, G11

Keywords: exchange rates; interest rates; predictability; risk premia; yield curve (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fmk
Date: 2018-02
Note: 1763608
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2131.en.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20182131

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Paper Series from European Central Bank 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Official Publications ().

 
Page updated 2019-10-19
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20182131