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Medium-term growth-at-risk in the euro area

Jan Hannes Lang, Marek Rusnák and Moritz Greiwe

No 2808, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: Financial stability indicators can be grouped into financial stress indicators that reflect heightened spreads and market volatility, and financial vulnerability indicators that reflect credit and asset price imbalances. Based on a panel of euro area countries, we show that both types of indicators contain information about downside risks to real GDP growth (growth-at-risk) in the short-term (1-year ahead). However, only vulnerability indicators contain information about growth-at-risk in the medium-term (3-years ahead and beyond). Among various vulnerability indicators suggested in the literature, the Systemic Risk Indicator (SRI) proposed by Lang et al. (2019) outperforms in terms of in-sample explanatory power and out-of-sample predictive ability for medium-term growth-at-risk in euro area countries. Shocks to the SRI induce a rich ”term structure” for growth-at-risk: downside risks to real GDP growth are reduced in the short-term, but over the medium-term the effect reverses and downside risks to real GDP growth go up considerably. We also show that using cross-country information from the panel of euro area countries can improve the out-of-sample forecasting performance of growth-at-risk for the euro area aggregate. JEL Classification: E37, E44, G01, G17, C22

Keywords: financial stress; financial vulnerabilities; growth-at-risk; local projections; quantile regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-eec, nep-fdg and nep-rmg
Note: 2731285
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