The Paris Agreement ten years later: Navigating climate uncertainty and tipping points

Dirk Broeders and Francesco Paolo Mongelli

No 3261, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: The climate crisis is an urgent, human-driven systemic challenge whose impacts are unfolding through increasingly frequent and severe extreme events. Although the 2015 Paris Agreement advanced global climate governance, implementation remains insufficient to limit warming to well below 2 °C and pursue 1.5 °C. Accelerating risks, interacting crises and potential tipping points suggest that climate change could become unmanageable if current GHGs emissions trajectories persist. This paper makes three contributions. First, it examines why we are failing to act decisively, highlighting a persistent awareness gap, competing priorities and weak political incentives for ambitious climate action. Second, it draws on NGFS climate-policy scenarios, the climate policy trilemma and a precautionary approach to clarify policymaking trade-offs under uncertainty. Third, it reviews policy, financial and technological levers to accelerate a just green transition. A new climate policy paradigm is needed: a systemic, precautionary, adaptive and incentive-compatible framework that can “tilt the odds” away from irreversible climate damage, even when probabilities are poorly known. JEL Classification: D81, E61, D62, Q54

Keywords: adaptive climate policies; ambition gap; climate crisis; deep uncertainty; Paris Agreement; tipping points (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-07
Note: 1423663
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263261

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