Forecasting Value-at-Risk Using the Markov-Switching ARCH Model

Wei-Ting Tang and Yin-Feng Gau

No 715, Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings from Econometric Society

Abstract: This paper analyzes the application of the Markov-switching ARCH model (Hamilton and Susmel, 1994) in improving value-at-risk (VaR) forecast. By considering a mixture of normal distributions with varying variances over different time and regimes, we find that the “spurious high persistence†found in the GARCH model is adjusted. Under relative performance and hypothesis-testing evaluations, the VaR forecasts derived from the Markov-switching ARCH model are preferred to alternative parametric and nonparametric VaR models that only consider time-varying volatility. JEL classification: C22, C52, G28. Keywords: Value-at-Risk, Switching-regime ARCH models.

Keywords: Value-at-Risk; Switching-regime ARCH models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C52 G28 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-08-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets, nep-fin and nep-rmg
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