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Discovering the Link Between Uncertainty and Investment - Microeconometric Evidence from Germany

Hjalmar Boehm, Michael Funke and Nikolaus A Siegfried
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Hjalmar Boehm: Universitaet Hamburg

No 112, Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers from Econometric Society

Abstract: We analyse empirically the effect of uncertainty on the investment decisions of a sample of quoted German firms. The uncertainty measures are constructed by employing two procedures: the conventional formula of standard deviation, and the GARCH methodology. We find that uncertainty exerts a significantly negative effect on investment, i.e. uncertainty slows down capital accumulation. We also find that this negative relationship is closely related to the degree of market power of the firm.

Date: 2000-08-01
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