Durations, Volume and the Prediction of Financial Returns in Transaction Time

Christian Hafner

No 599, Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers from Econometric Society

Abstract: Traditional microstructural theories of asset pricing emphasize the role of volume as a trend indicator. With the availability of large transaction data sets, one has started recently to incorporate more information of the trades, such as the time between trades, to describe the multivariate dynamics of transactions. Without knowing a priori the relation between the observed components of a trade - price, duration between trades, and volume - one may follow the principle of `letting the data speak for themselves'. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the informational content of both volume and durations to predict transaction returns using explorative nonparametric methods. The empirical results for transaction data of IBM stock prices confirm the role of volume as a trend indicator and suggest that the bid-ask bounce is smaller in highly active than in less active trading periods. That is, after a sell (buy) expected returns are decreasing (increasing) with volume and increasing (decreasing) with durations.

Date: 2000-08-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
http://fmwww.bc.edu/RePEc/es2000/0599.pdf main text (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Durations, volume and the prediction of financial returns in transaction time (2005)
Working Paper: Durations, volume and the prediction of financial returns in transaction time (2005)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecm:wc2000:0599

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers from Econometric Society Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Christopher F. Baum ().