Wages, Prices, Productivity, Inflation and Unemployment in Italy 1970-1994

Massimiliano Marcellino and Grayham Mizon

No 911, Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers from Econometric Society

Abstract: The relationships between wages, prices, productivity, inflation and unemployment in Italy between 1970 and 1994, are modelled using a cointegrated vector autoregression. There is evidence of a change in the underlying equilibria and in the dynamic evolution of the variables, probably associated with the substantial changes in many sectors of the Italian economy after 1979. Alternative ways to model structural change in the Italian labour market are considered, including choice of lag length, the use of dummy variables, modelling conditionally on related macroeconomic variables, and modelling separate regimes. In adopting a split sample approach the results favour an hysteresis interpretation of unemployment.

Date: 2000-08-01
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