United States economic outlook: 2025 year-in-review and first quarter of 2026

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Oficina de la CEPAL en Washington (Estudios e Investigaciones) from Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL)

Abstract: In 2025, the United States economy expanded by 2.1%, led by consumer spending. Labor market conditions weakened, with job creation slowing to 116,000 jobs during the year and the unemployment rate increasing to 4.4% in December. Inflation moderated but remained above the Federal Reserve’s target, with consumer price index (CPI) inflation easing to 2.7% by year-end. The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates three times in 2025, reducing the federal funds target range to 3.50%–3.75%, while trade and fiscal imbalances remained elevated. In the first quarter of 2026, real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.6%. Labor market conditions improved, with 218,000 jobs created during the quarter, exceeding the total number of jobs created in all of 2025. Inflationary pressures re-emerged, with CPI inflation rising to 4.2% in May 2026, while the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. United States economic and policy developments continued to influence financial conditions in Latin America and the Caribbean, supporting record international bond issuance in 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. Rising geopolitical risks, elevated Treasury yields, and continued policy uncertainty may pose challenges to the region going forward. The United States economic outlook reports summarize key United States macroeconomic developments and their potential implications for financial conditions in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Date: 2026-07-06
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