We have just averaged over two trillion cross-country growth regressions

Eduardo Ley and Mark Steel

Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series from Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh

Abstract: We investigate the issue of model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions using Bayesian model averaging (BMA). We find that the posterior probability is distributed among many models, suggesting the superiority of BMA over any single model. Out-of-sample predictive results support that claim. In contrast with Levine and Renelt (1992), our results broadly support the more "optimistic'' conclusion of Sala-i-Martin (1997b), namely, that some variables are important regressors for explaining cross-country growth patterns. However, the variables we identify as most useful for growth regression differ substantially from Sala-i-Martin's results.

Keywords: Bayesian model averaging; choice of regressors; economic growth; Markov chain; Monte Carlo prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C52 O49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20
Date: 1999-07
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.econ.ed.ac.uk/papers/id43_esedps.pdf

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:edn:esedps:43

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series from Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh 31 Buccleuch Place, EH8 9JT, Edinburgh. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Research Office ().