3-Regime symmetric STAR modeling and exchange rate reversion

Mario Cerrato, Hyunsok Kim and Ronald MacDonald

No 2009-07, SIRE Discussion Papers from Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE)

Abstract: The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and the adoption of generalized oating exchange rates ushered in a new era of exchange rate volatility and uncer- tainty. This increased volatility lead economists to search for economic models able to describe observed exchange rate behavior. In the present paper we propose more general STAR transition functions which encompass both threshold nonlinearity and asymmetric e¤ects. Our framework allows for a gradual adjustment from one regime to another, and considers threshold e¤ects by encompassing other existing models, such as TAR models. We apply our methodology to three di¤erent exchange rate data-sets, one for developing countries, and o¢ cial nominal exchange rates, the sec- ond emerging market economies using black market exchange rates and the third for OECD economies.

Keywords: unit root tests; threshold autoregressive models; purchasing power (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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