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Inflation Uncertainty, Exchange Rate Depreciation and Volatility: Evidence from Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania

Hassan Molana and Kwame Osei-Assibey ()

No 2010-94, SIRE Discussion Papers from Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE)

Abstract: While flexible exchange rates facilitate stabilisation, exchange rate fluctuations can cause real volatility. This gives policy importance to the causal relationship between exchange rate depreciation and its volatility. An exchange rate may be expected to become more volatile when the underlying currency loses value. We conjecture that a reverse causation, which further weakens the currency, may be mitigated by price stability. Data from Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania support this: depreciation makes exchange rate more volatile for all but volatility does not causes depreciation in Tanzania which has enjoyed a more stable inflation despite all countries adopting similar macro-policies since early 1990s.

Keywords: exchange rate; depreciation; volatility; causality; GARCH; VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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