When to Quit Under Uncertainty? A real options approach to smoking cessation
Yu-Fu Chen and
Dennis Petrie ()
No 2012-79, SIRE Discussion Papers from Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE)
This paper models the decision to quit smoking like an investment decision where the quitter incurs a sunk withdrawal cost today and forgoes their consumer surplus from cigarettes (invests) and hopes to reap an uncertain reward of better health and therefore higher utility in the future (return). We show that a risk-averse mature smoker who expects to benefit from quitting may still rationally choose to delay quitting until they are more confident that quitting is the right decision for them. Such a decision by the smoker is due to the value associated with keeping their option of whether or not to quit open as they learn more about the damage that smoking will have on their future utility. Policies which reduce a smokerâ€™s uncertainty about the damage that smoking with have on their future utility is likely to make them quit earlier.
Keywords: smoking; quitting; optimal stopping problem; real options analysis; addiction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Working Paper: When to Quit Under Uncertainty? A real options approach to smoking cessation (2012)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:edn:sirdps:396
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in SIRE Discussion Papers from Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) 31 Buccleuch Place, EH8 9JT, Edinburgh. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Research Office ().