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Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World

Joseph Byrne (), Dimitris Korobilis and Pinho J. Ribeiro

No 2014-021, SIRE Discussion Papers from Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE)

Abstract: An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such Taylor rules with Time Varying Parameters (TVP) estimated by Bayesian methods. In core out-of-sample results, we improve upon a random walk benchmark for at least half, and for as many as eight out of ten, of the currencies considered. This contrasts with a constant parameter Taylor rule model that yields a more limited improvement upon the benchmark. In further results, Purchasing Power Parity and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity TVP models beat a random walk benchmark, implying our methods have some generality in exchange rate prediction.

Keywords: Exchange Rate Forecasting; Taylor Rules; Time-Varying Parameters; Bayesian Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-for, nep-ger, nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-opm
Date: 2014-02-14
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Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10943/566

Related works:
Journal Article: Exchange rate predictability in a changing world (2016) Downloads
Working Paper: Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World (2014) Downloads
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