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On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability

Joseph Byrne (), Dimitris Korobilis and Pinho Ribeiro

No 2015-24, SIRE Discussion Papers from Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE)

Abstract: We analyse the role of time-variation in coefficients and other sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting regressions. Our techniques incorporate the notion that the relevant set of predictors and their corresponding weights, change over time. We find that predictive models which allow for sudden rather than smooth, changes in coefficients significantly beat the random walk benchmark in out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Using innovative variance decomposition scheme, we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients' variability, as the main factors hindering models' forecasting performance. The uncertainty regarding the choice of the predictor is small.

Keywords: Instabilities; Exchange Rate Forecasting; Time-Varying Parameter Models; Bayesian Model Averaging; Forecast Combination; Financial Condi- tion Indexes; Bootstrap (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-09-26
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http://hdl.handle.net/10943/612

Related works:
Journal Article: ON THE SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN EXCHANGE RATE PREDICTABILITY (2018) Downloads
Working Paper: On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability (2014) Downloads
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