Common and Idiosyncratic Factors of the Exchange Risk Premium in Emerging European Markets

Joseph Byrne and Jun Nagayasu

No 2008-49, SIRE Discussion Papers from Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE)

Abstract: Existing empirical evidence suggests that the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIRP) condition may not hold due to an exchange risk premium. For a panel data set of eleven emerging European economies we decompose this exchange risk premium into an idiosyncratic (country-specific) elements and a common factor using a principal components approach. We present evidence of a stationary idiosyncratic component and nonstationary common factor. This result leads to the conclusion of a nonstationary risk premium for these countries and a violation of the UIRP in the long-run, which is in contrast to previous studies often documenting a stationary premium in developed countries. Furthermore, we report that the variation in the premium is largely attributable to a common factor influenced by economic developments in the United States.

Keywords: Uncovered Interest Rate Parity; Emerging Economies; Exchange Risk; Common Factors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:edn:sirdps:62

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