Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets
Joseph Byrne,
Shuo Cao and
Dimitris Korobilis
No 2015-75, SIRE Discussion Papers from Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE)
Abstract:
This paper investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement, which is mainly attributed to shocks to non-fundamentals. Global fundamentals, especially global inflation, affect yields through a ‘policy channel’ and a ‘risk compensation channel’, but the effects through two channels are offset. This evidence explains the unsatisfactory performance of fundamentals-driven term structure models. Our approach delineates asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. The proposed model is robust as identified factors has significant explanatory power of excess returns. The finding that global inflation uncertainty is useful in explaining realized excess returns does not rule out regime changing as a source of non-fundamental fluctuations.
Keywords: Global Bond Markets; Term Structure of Interest Rates; Shocks to Fundamentals and Non-Fundamentals; Co-Movement; Contagion; Excess Return (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-06-15
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:
Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10943/683
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 404 Not Found
Related works:
Working Paper: Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets? (2015) 
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:edn:sirdps:683
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in SIRE Discussion Papers from Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) 31 Buccleuch Place, EH8 9JT, Edinburgh. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Research Office ().