The dynamics of firms’ export portfolio: A network analysis with an application to Mexico and Bulgaria

Juan de Lucio, Raúl Mínguez, Asier Minondo () and Francisco Requena Silvente
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Raúl Mínguez: High Council of Spanish Chambers of Commerce

No 1316, Working Papers from Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia

Abstract: In this paper we use network-analysis tools to identify communities in the web of Bulgarian and Mexican exporters' destinations. We show that the network-based community measure is superior to extended gravity measures to predict the dynamics of firm's export-portfolio. This superiority stems from the fact that community is a revealed measure, is country-specific and can be calculated at the industry level. We show that a one unit increase in the number of destinations previously served by the exporter within a community rises between 49% and 66% the probability of selecting a new export destination in that community. The networkbased community variable improves the accuracy of the model between 8% and 17% relative to a model that only includes gravity and extended-gravity variables. We also show that industry-specific communities and general communities play similar roles in determining the dynamics of Bulgarian and Mexican exporters' portfolio.

Keywords: export market; network analysis; modularity; extended gravity; Mexico; Bulgaria (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 48 pages
Date: 2013-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int
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http://repecsrv.uv.es/paper/RePEc/pdf/eec_1316.pdf First version, 2013 (application/pdf)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eec:wpaper:1316

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