Is Climate Change Altering Tourism Flows? Insights from Structural Gravity Estimation

Rafael Llorca and Alejandra Martínez – Martínez
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Rafael Llorca: Departamento de Economía Aplicada II (Estructura Económica), Facultad de Economía, Avda. de los Naranjos, s/n, 46022 Valencia
Alejandra Martínez – Martínez: University of Valencia and INTECO

No 2503, Working Papers from Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of key climate factors and extreme meteorological events on international tourism flows relative to domestic tourism flows. To achieve this, we estimate a structural gravity equation on a sample of 50 countries over the period 2008–2021. On average, temperatures do not exhibit a significant effect on the aforementioned relationship. However, this finding is critically influenced by the heterogeneity observed across countries, particularly the negative effects estimated for Canada and the United States. The number of hot days and heavy precipitations reduces the relative volume of international tourism, although this effect also varies depending on the country. Notably, the United States once again plays a pivotal role in driving the estimated average negative impact of extreme events on international tourism flows. At the global level, storms, landslides, wildfires, extreme temperatures and epidemics adversely affect international tourism.

Keywords: Climate change; Domestic tourism; International Tourism; Gravity Equation; United States (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F64 L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-03
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