Projection of fossil fuel demands in Vietnam to 2050 and climate change implications

Quang Minh Tran

Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies from Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University

Abstract: Over the past decade, Vietnam has emerged as one of the world's fastest growing economies. Fossil fuel use, which is a dominant energy source and vital for economic growth, have been increasing considerably. Undoubtedly, the projection of fossil fuel demand is essential for a better understanding of energy needs, fuel mix, and Vietnam's strategic development. This paper provides an outlook for coal, oil, and gas demand in Vietnam to 2050. The projection is based on the calibrated results from a hybrid model (that combines a GTAP†R version for resources, and a micro simulation approach) and an energy database. Under the baseline scenario (business as usual), from 2018 to 2050, the demand for coal, oil products, and gas are expected to increase by a factor of 2.47†fold, 2.14†fold, and 1.67†fold, respectively. Emissions are also projected to increase. Because fossil fuels are the dominant source of carbon emissions in Vietnam, it follows, going forward, that an effective fuel†mix strategy that encourages the development of renewables and energy efficiency is essential.

Keywords: climate change; emissions; fossil fuels demand; projection; Vietnam (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24 pages
Date: 2019-06-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env and nep-sea
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Published in Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies, May 2019, pages 208-221

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:een:appswp:201912

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