EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Making Outsiders' Votes Count: Detecting Electoral Fraud Through a Natural Experiment

Kentaro Fukumoto and Yusaku Horiuchi ()
Additional contact information
Kentaro Fukumoto: Gakushuin University

Crawford School Research Papers from Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University

Abstract: Weak electoral registration requirements are commonly thought to encourage electoral participation, but may also promote electoral fraud. For one, candidates and their supporters can more easily mobilize voters outside the district to register and vote for the candidates, even though these voters do not reside within the district. We statistically detect this classic type of electoral fraud for the first time, by taking advantage of a natural experimental setting in Japanese municipal elections. We argue that whether or not a municipal election was held in April 2003 can be regarded as an "as-if" randomly assigned treatment. The difference-in-difference analysis of municipality-month panel data shows that an increase in the new population just prior to April 2003 is significantly larger in treatment municipalities (with an election) than in control ones (without an election). The estimated effects are, in some cases, decisive enough to change the electoral results, especially when the election is competitive. We argue that our approach – "election timing as treatment" – can be applied to investigate not only this type of electoral fraud but also other "electoral connection[s]" (Mayhew 1974) in other countries.

Keywords: electoral fraud; natural experiment; local elections; Japan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C90 D72 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 50 pages
Date: 2011-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm and nep-pol
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.crawford.anu.edu.au/pdf/crwf_ssrn/crwfrp_1101.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Making Outsiders' Votes Count: Detecting Electoral Fraud through a Natural Experiment (2011) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:een:crwfrp:1101

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Crawford School Research Papers from Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by David Stern ().

 
Page updated 2020-07-08
Handle: RePEc:een:crwfrp:1101