High-Ranked Social Science Journal Articles Can Be Identified from Early Citation Information

David Stern

Crawford School Research Papers from Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University

Abstract: Do citations accumulate too slowly in the social sciences to be used to assess the quality of recent articles? I investigate whether this is the case using citation data for all articles in economics and political science published in 2006 and indexed in the Web of Science. Surprisingly, citations in the first one to two years after publication are highly predictive for cumulative citations received over a longer period. Journal impact factors improve the correlation between the predicted and actual future ranks of journal articles when using citation data from 2006 alone but the effect declines sharply thereafter.

JEL-codes: A12 A14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-sog
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (38)

Downloads: (external link)
http://ssrn.com/abstract=2456107

Related works:
Journal Article: High-Ranked Social Science Journal Articles Can Be Identified from Early Citation Information (2014)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:een:crwfrp:1406

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Crawford School Research Papers from Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by David Stern ().