The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists

Timothy Guinnane

Working Papers from Economic Growth Center, Yale University

Abstract: The historical fertility transition is the process by which much of Europe and North America went from high to low fertility in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. This transformation is central to recent accounts of long-run economic growth. Prior to the transition, women bore as many as eight children each, and the elasticity of fertility with respect to incomes was positive. Today, many women have no children at all, and the elasticity of fertility with respect to incomes is zero or even negative. This paper discusses the large literature on the historical fertility transition, focusing on what we do and do not know about the process. I stress some possible misunderstandings of the demographic literature, and discuss an agenda for future work.

Keywords: fertility transition; long-run growth; Malthusian models; quantity-quality trade-off (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: N3 O1 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 42 pages
Date: 2010-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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http://www.econ.yale.edu/growth_pdf/cdp990.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists (2011)
Working Paper: The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists (2010)
Working Paper: The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:egc:wpaper:990

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