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The Stability Of The Turkish Phillips Curve And Alternative Regime Shifting Models

A. Özlem Önder

No 602, Working Papers from Ege University, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper presents empirical evidence supporting instability of the Phillips curve in Turkey. We employ the multiple structural break models and the Markov switching models and then evaluate the performance of the two models. The data pertains to the monthly inflation rate in Turkey for the period of 1987-2004. The results show that the Turkish Phillips curve is not linear. There exists no evidence on the asymmetry in the inflation response to output gap. The persistence of inflation is found to be much lower than in linear models. After 2001 slight decline in persistence of inflation is observed.

Keywords: Phillips curve; multiple structural change models; Markov switching models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23 pages
Date: 2006-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-cwa, nep-mac and nep-mon
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Downloads: (external link) First version, 2006 (application/pdf)

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Journal Article: The stability of the Turkish Phillips curve and alternative regime shifting models (2009) Downloads
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