GOLFING WITH TRUMP: Social capital, decline, inequality, and the rise of populism in the US

Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, Neil Lee and Cornelius Lipp

No 2038, Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) from Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography

Abstract: In 2000 Robert Putnam forecast that United States (US) democracy was at risk from the twin challenges of declining civic engagement and rising interpersonal inequality. Sixteen years later, his predictions were vindicated by the election of Donald Trump as president of the US. This paper analyses the extent to which the election of Donald Trump was related to levels of social capital and interpersonal inequalities and posits a third alternative: that the rise in vote for Trump in 2016 was the result of long-term economic and population decline in areas with strong social capital. This hypothesis is confirmed by the econometric analysis conducted for counties across the US. Long-term declines in employment and population – rather than in earnings, salaries, or wages – in places with relatively strong social capital propelled Donald Trump to the presidency. By contrast, low social capital and high interpersonal inequality were not connected to a surge in support for Trump. These results are robust to the introduction of control variables and different inequality measures. The analysis also shows that the discontent at the base of the Trump margin is not just a consequence of the 2008 crisis but had been brewing for a long time. Places in the US that remained cohesive but witnessed an enduring decline are no longer bowling alone, they are golfing with Trump.

Keywords: Populism; social capital; inequality; economic and demographic decline; Donald Trump; counties; US (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D31 D72 O15 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-09, Revised 2020-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-pke, nep-pol and nep-soc
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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http://econ.geo.uu.nl/peeg/peeg2038.pdf Version September 2020 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Golfing with Trump. Social capital, decline, inequality, and the rise of populism in the US (2021)
Working Paper: Golfing with Trump. Social capital, decline, inequality, and the rise of populism in the US (2021)
Working Paper: Golfing with Trump. Social capital, decline, inequality, and the rise of populism in the US (2020)
Working Paper: Golfing with Trump: social capital, decline, inequality, and the rise of populism in the US (2020)
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