Liberal trade policy and food insecurity across the income distribution: an observational analysis in 132 countries, 2014–17

Pepita Barlow, Rachel Loopstra, Valerie Tarasuk and Aaron Reeves

LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library

Abstract: Background. Eradicating food insecurity is necessary for achieving global health goals. Liberal trade policies may increase food supplies but how these policies influence individual-level food insecurity remains uncertain. Methods. We combined Food and Agricultural Organization data from 460,102 persons in 132 countries, 2014-2017, with a country-level trade policy index from the Konjunkturforschungsstelle (KOF) Swiss Economic Institute. We examined the association between a country’s trade policy score and the probability of reporting ‘moderate/severe’ food insecurity using regression models and algorithmic weighting procedures. We control for multiple covariates, including GDP, democratization, and population size. We further examined heterogeneity by country- and household-income. Results. Liberal trade policy was not significantly associated with moderate/severe food insecurity after covariate adjustment. However, among households in high-income countries with incomes larger than $25,430 per person per year, a unit increase in the trade policy index (more liberal) corresponded to a 0·07 % (95% CI: -0·10% to -0·04%) reduction in the predicted probability of reporting moderate/severe food insecurity. Among households in the lowest income decile (

Keywords: ES/N017358/1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 N0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-int
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Published in The Lancet Global Health, August, 2020. ISSN: 2214-109X

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