State-level economic uncertainty and cardiovascular disease deaths: evidence from the United States

Ilias-Ioannis Kyriopoulos, Sotiris Vandoros and Ichiro Kawachi

LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library

Abstract: The relationship between economic recessions and cardiovascular mortality has been widely explored. However, there is limited evidence on whether economic uncertainty alone is linked to cardiovascular disease deaths. This study examines the association between economic uncertainty and mortality from diseases of the circulatory system in the United States. We obtained monthly state-level mortality data from 2008 to 2017 and used indices capturing economic uncertainty from national/international sources and local sources. Panel data modelling was used to account for unobserved time-invariant differences between the states. Our findings suggest that economic uncertainty is independently linked to cardiovascular mortality. Uncertainty arising from national/international sources is associated with cardiovascular deaths, whereas the respective index capturing uncertainty from state/local sources is not. Deaths respond asymmetrically with respect to uncertainty fluctuations – with high levels of uncertainty driving the association. One- and two-month lagged uncertainty levels are also associated with mortality. Several robustness checks further validate the baseline findings. Overall, economic uncertainty is an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality which appears to act as a psychosocial stressor and a short-term trigger. Public health strategies for cardiovascular disease need to consider factors driving economic uncertainty. Preventive measures and raising awareness can intensify in periods of economic uncertainty.

Keywords: economic uncertainty; economic conditions; cardiovascular disease; United States (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 9 pages
Date: 2023-11-15
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Published in European Journal of Epidemiology, 15, November, 2023, 38(11), pp. 1175 - 1183. ISSN: 0393-2990

Downloads: (external link)
http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/120679/ Open access version. (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ehl:lserod:120679

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library LSE Library Portugal Street London, WC2A 2HD, U.K.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by LSERO Manager ().