Authorities’ fiscal forecasts in Latin America: are they optimistic?

Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Luca Ricci, Alejandro Mariano Werner and Rene Zamarripa

LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library

Abstract: Do governments in Latin America tend to be optimistic when preparing budgetary projections? We address this question by constructing a novel dataset of the authorities’ fiscal forecasts in six Latin American economies, using data from annual budget documents over the period 2000–2018. We compare such forecasts with the outturns reported in the corresponding budget documents of the following years, to understand the evolution of fiscal forecast errors. Our findings suggest that: (i) there is no general optimistic bias in the forecasts for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio; (ii) over time, fiscal forecasts have improved for some countries and worsened for others; (iii) forecast errors for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio are positively correlated with GDP growth and terms-of-trade changes, and negatively correlated with GDP deflator surprises; (iv) forecast errors for public debt-to-GDP ratios are negatively associated with surprises to GDP growth; and (v), budget balance rules may help contain fiscal forecast errors.

Keywords: fiscal forecasts; forecast error; fiscal balance; Forecast error (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E60 H50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 18 pages
Date: 2023-10-04
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Published in Economía, 4, October, 2023, 22(1), pp. 135 – 152. ISSN: 1529-7470

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http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/120716/ Open access version. (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Authorities’ Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America: Are They Optimistic? (2021)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ehl:lserod:120716

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