What if? The macroeconomic and distributional effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia

Rüdiger Bachmann, David Baqaee, Christian Bayer, Moritz Kuhn, Andreas Löschel, Ben Moll, Andreas Peichl, Karen Pittel and Moritz Schularick

LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library

Abstract: This paper discusses the economic effects of a potential cut-off of the German economy from Russian energy imports. We use a multi-sector open-economy model and a simplified approach based on an aggregate production function to estimate the effects of a shock to energy inputs. We show that the effects are likely to be substantial but manageable because of substitution of energy imports and reallocation along the production chain. In the short run, a stop of Russian energy imports would lead to an output loss relative to the baseline situation, without the energy cut-off, in the range 0.5% to 3% of GDP.

JEL-codes: F41 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44 pages
Date: 2024-10-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-eec, nep-ene and nep-int
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Published in Economica, 9, October, 2024, 91(364), pp. 1157 - 1200. ISSN: 0013-0427

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http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/124094/ Open access version. (application/pdf)

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Journal Article: What if? The macroeconomic and distributional effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia (2024)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ehl:lserod:124094

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