Isotonic propensity score matching

Mengshan Xu and Taisuke Otsu

LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library

Abstract: We propose a one-to-many matching estimator of the average treatment effect based on propensity scores estimated by isotonic regression. This approach is predicated on the assumption of monotonicity in the propensity score function, a condition that can be justified in many economic applications. We show that the nature of the isotonic estimator can help us to fix many problems of existing matching methods, including efficiency, choice of the number of matches, choice of tuning parameters, robustness to propensity score misspecification, and bootstrap validity. As a by-product, a uniformly consistent isotonic estimator is developed for our proposed matching method.

JEL-codes: J1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 51 pages
Date: 2025-11-14
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Published in Econometric Theory, 14, November, 2025. ISSN: 0266-4666

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