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An atlas of educational inequality in Italy: outcomes, disparities and opportunities

Paolo Brunori, Emanuele Fedeli and Moris Triventi

LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library

Abstract: We present an in-depth analysis of educational inequality in Italy, focusing on disparities in educational outcomes and opportunities across different socio-economic, gender, and migration backgrounds. Leveraging administrative longitudinal data, we construct a dataset of 386 small geographical areas with a sufficient sample size to assess the extent to which key ascriptive characteristics predict the mathematical achievement of Italian students in the 5th grade of primary school. Our findings highlight a substantial influence of ascriptive characteristics on students’ educational attainment, able to correctly predict out-of-sample up to 20% of the variability despite the relatively small sample size. We show significant geographical variation that previous studies, based on larger geographical aggregations, were unable to observe comprehensively. Additionally, we identify a weak yet negative trade-off between equality and average attainment, which is more pronounced in southern areas, where higher achievement is associated with greater variance and a stronger influence of ascriptive characteristics. Among the predictors, we find that mother’s education plays a predominant role in most of the country.

Keywords: mathematics; opportunity; education; inequality; machine learning; INVALSI (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27 pages
Date: 2026-01-31
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Published in Social Indicators Research, 31, January, 2026, 181(2). ISSN: 0303-8300

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