Risk perceptions and protective behaviors at the onset and outset of the COVID-19 pandemic

Joan Costa-Font, Melcior Rossello-Roig, Caroline Rudisill and Luca Salmasi

LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library

Abstract: We study the formation of risk perceptions— subjective probability beliefs— of three adverse events—COVID-19 contagion, influenza contagion, and food poisoning—at the onset (2020) and outset (2023) of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. We show that perceived risk levels for COVID-19 are similar to those for influenza, are not significantly influenced by proximity to infection, and are shaped instead by an individual’s gender, education, and employment status. Using an instrumental variable strategy, we assess whether these perceptions influence a number of protective behaviors. We find that although risk perceptions are associated with various protective behaviors, they only causally increase the likelihood of phone or online medical consultations by about a percentage point.

Keywords: risk perception; subjective probability; risk proximity; COVID-19; influenza; food poisoning; health consultations; protective behaviours (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D81 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 53 pages
Date: 2026-06-29
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Published in Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 29, June, 2026. ISSN: 0895-5646

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